Platinum and Palladium in 2020 and Beyond
2020年铂钯预测
The markets and prices of platinum and palladium were due for some major changes in 2020, after developments over the past few years that astounded and surprised many.
铂和钯的市场和价格将在2020年发生一些重大变化，它们此前几年的发展令许多人感到震惊和惊讶。
Then came the novel coronavirus pandemic, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the immediate plunge of most countries’ economies into deep recessions. These developments hit fabrication demand for these metals hard and drove prices sharply lower in the two weeks between the time HSE requested this article from CPM and the time we were writing it.
随后出现了新型冠状病毒的蔓延、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的石油价格战，以及大多数国家的经济紧接着陷入深度衰退。从上海华通铂银交易市场向CPM集团要求撰写本文的两周内，这些事态的发展严重打击了这些金属的制造需求，并导致其价格大幅下跌。
In reality the outlook for these two sister metals is relatively straight forward. However, given the enormous amount of misinformation, and wildly inaccurate statistics and analysis in these markets, many market participants repeatedly are surprised by developments.
事实上，这两种姊妹金属的前景相对简单。然而，鉴于这些市场存在大量的错误信息和极不准确的统计和分析，许多市场参与者一再对事态发展感到惊讶。
For years the platinum mining companies in South Africa said there were massive ongoing deficits in platinum supply, and the weak platinum prices did not make sense in light of this. In reality, there were massive surpluses, and the weak platinum prices were perfectly logical if you understood this.
南非的铂金矿业公司多年来一直表示，铂金供应持续严重短缺，鉴于这一点，疲软的铂金价格是毫无道理的。如果实际上铂金存在大量盈余，则疲软的铂金价格是完全合乎逻辑的。
Now the platinum miners in South Africa say that there have been and continue to be massive deficits in palladium. This explains the sharp rise in palladium prices, they say. They also say that fabrication demand for palladium from the auto industry had been very strong, at least up to the middle part of March when the global economy fell apart. This latter assertion was in start contrast to comments by the world’ largest palladium producer in Russia, which said that the high prices had reduced auto demand for palladium and that the price increase reflected investors and speculators buying and hoarding palladium, not fabrication demand. The Russian view was amply supported by market data and information, seeming much more credible.
现在，南非的铂金矿商表示，钯金已经存在并将持续存在大量短缺。他们表示，这解释了钯金价格的大幅上涨。他们还表示，汽车行业对钯的制造需求非常强劲，至少在3月中旬全球经济崩溃之前是如此。后一种说法与俄罗斯全球最大的钯生产商的评论形成鲜明对比，后者表示，高价格降低了汽车对钯的需求，价格上涨反映的是投资者和投机者购买和囤积钯，而非制造业需求。俄罗斯的观点得到了市场数据和信息的充分支持，似乎更加可信。
There are many other commonly accepted ideas in platinum and palladium that are simply not true, and much that is not known or said.
铂和钯中还有许多其他普遍接受的想法根本不是正确的，而且很多都是未知或未被说出来的。
For example, auto makers have been substituting small amount of platinum for palladium in catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles. This has been ignored or denied. Now the pace will accelerate as vehicles re-engineered to take more platinum intense cars come into production. This move is being heralded as being made possible through the invention of trimetallic ‘three-way catalytic converters.’ In reality, these three-way converters were the standard catalysts used on virtually every car that took a catalyst from 1980, when the U.S. phased in nitrous and nitric oxide emission standards, into the turn of the century, when a combination of wild gyrations in palladium prices, emission standards coming into being for diesel catalysts, recessionary auto markets, and other factors led to a move toward a vastly more heterogenous range of auto catalysts being manufactured and used. Three-way catalysts were the work-horses of emission control technology since emission standards first were introduced by the U.S. government in the 1970s.
例如，汽车制造商一直在汽油动力汽车的催化剂中用少量的铂代替钯。这一点之前被忽略或否认了。现在，随着汽车的重新设计更多的铂金密集型汽车的生产，这一步伐将会加快。这一举措被认为是通过发明三金属“三元催化转化器”而实现的。事实上，1980年以来这些三元转化器是几乎每辆采用催化剂的汽车的标准催化剂。进入世纪之交，美国逐步采用一氧化二氮和一氧化氮排放标准市，钯价格剧烈波动、柴油催化剂的排放标准出台、衰退的汽车市场以及其他因素共同作用下，汽车催化剂的生产和使用向更加多样化的方向发展。自20世纪70年代美国政府首次引入排放标准以来，三元催化器一直是排放控制技术的主力。
The markets for these metals are hit by a wide range of misunderstandings, and not just those put forth by producers and their marketing agents.
这些金属的市场受到各种误解的影响，不仅仅是生产者及其销售代理提出的错误观点。
There are wildly over optimistic projections about how fast electric vehicles may gain market share, overlooking enormous structural impediments. As a result, many platinum and palladium market participants, including investment managers, assume the use of these metals to clean exhaust from diesel and gasoline powered vehicles will disappear far more quickly than should reasonably be expected. This has limited investment into the metals and the mining companies, and has skewed long-term mine development decision making.
对电动汽车获得市场份额的速度，人们存在过于乐观的预测，忽视了巨大的结构性障碍。因此，包括投资经理在内的许多铂和钯市场参与者认为，使用这些金属清洁柴油和汽油动力汽车的废气将比合理预期的消失的更快。这限制了对金属和采矿公司的投资，并扭曲了长期的矿山开发决策。
On the other side, the South African platinum miners and their marketing agents have been projecting that hundreds of thousands of ounces of platinum would be used in fuel cell powered automobiles… since the 1970s. It has yet to happen.
另一方面，自20世纪70年代以来，南非铂金矿工及其销售代理一直预测：燃料电池动力汽车将使用数十万盎司的铂。但这尚未发生。
So what about prices in 2020?
关于2020年的价格？
The charts here show accurate representations of both historical and future balances between these two metals. One can see that the trends for these two metals are reversing in the long-run. For now, platinum remains well supplied while the amount of palladium being refined is rising to surpass the amount of this metals being used in fabricated products.
此处的图表准确显示了这两种金属之间历史和未来的余额。可以看出，从长远来看，这两种金属的趋势正在逆转。目前，铂仍然供应充足，而精炼的钯量正在上升，已经超过了用于制造产品的钯金属的数量。
This means that, setting aside the chaos abroad in the world this year, one might expect palladium prices to stop rising and maybe fall in 2020 and subsequent years.
这意味着，抛开今年国际市场的混乱不谈，人们可能预计钯价格将在2020年及其后几年停止上涨，甚至可能下跌。
Platinum meanwhile would be expected to remain relatively low for a while, until the market balance of newly refined platinum entering the market relative to fabrication demand tightened further.
与此同时，预计铂金价格将在一段时间内保持在相对较低的水平，直到新精炼铂金相对于制造需求进入市场的市场平衡进一步收紧。
The palladium scenario has been fueled further and faster by the virtual collapse of auto production and sales in most of the world. This will keep palladium prices weak during the first half of 2020. If government efforts to resuscitate their economies succeed, by the second half auto production and sales may begin to recover, and palladium prices might stabilize, down from their first quarter peak levels.
由于全球大部分地区的汽车生产和销售大幅下降，进一步影响了钯金的发展前景。这将使钯金价格在2020年上半年保持疲软。如果政府为振兴经济所做的努力成功，那么到下半年汽车生产和销售可能会开始恢复，钯价格可能会稳定，低于第一季度的最高水平。
For platinum the global economic crisis will prolong its revival. Prices should be expected to remain weak through 2020 and into 2021. Even as the auto industry recovers and auto manufacturers accelerate their shift back to using more platinum at the expense of palladium, the platinum market will remain well supplied for the next few years, limiting price increases until such time as investors awake to the realities of (a) recovering auto production and sales, (b) an accelerated shift back toward platinum in catalysts, and (c) the reality that future motive energy supplies will not replace the need for platinum, palladium, and rhodium in catalysts for many years.
对于铂金而言，全球经济危机将延长其复苏。预计到2020年和2021年，价格将保持疲软。即使汽车行业复苏，汽车制造商加速转向以钯为代价使用更多铂金，未来几年铂金市场仍将保持良好的供应，限制价格上涨，直到投资者意识到（a）恢复汽车生产和销售，（b）加速在催化剂中转向铂，以及（c）未来动力能源供应不会取代多年来催化剂中对铂，钯和铑的需求的现实。
图1：当前铂金市场
图2：铂金供应
图3：制造业需求
图4：燃料电池
图5：CPM集团的PGM十年预测报告
图6：年度钯金供应
图7：钯金的年度加工需求
《2020年国际铂钯价格预测报告》重磅发布
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