《2020年国际白银价格预测报告》系列之一
Michael DiRienzo 世界白银协会执行董事
The COVID-19 pandemic has altered our forecasts significantly. It is still too early to determine the final impact it will have on the metals market it has changed the outlook significantly. It should be noted that this is being felt by virtually all businesses on a global basis. It is also severely impacting global financial markets, and as a result, most of the precious metals complex.
今年年初，新型冠状病毒在全球大爆发，这极大的改变了我们的预测。它将对贵金属市场的前景产生重大影响，而现在去评价它对贵金属市场带来的最终影响还为时太早。值得注意的是，全球几乎所有行业都感受到了这一点。病毒也严重冲击了国际金融市场，使大部分贵金属市场的情况变得错综复杂。
Growth in silver industrial offtake (making up for just over half of total demand in 2019) was expected to resume in 2020, reversing two years of marginal losses. However, the COVID-19 global pandemic has altered significantly this outlook as supply chains throughout the world have been disrupted, and in many cases shuttered temporarily. As a result, we forecast at least a 5% decrease in 2020.
2020年白银工业需求(2019年仅占总需求的一半多一点)预计将恢复增长，扭转两年的边际损失。然而，新型冠状病毒在全球大爆发，已极大改变了这一前景，随着世界各地白银供应链的中断，许多工厂被暂时关闭，因此，我们预测其在2020年至少减少5%。
Demand from the electronics and electrical sector will be impacted. Silver use in the automotive industry, for instance, will also be affected. Silver’s use in brazing will also be impacted. Silver use in 5G-infrastructure and upcoming intelligent electronics as well as PV are bright spots. Jewelry demand is forecast to experience declines this year as many manufactures have temporarily closed their production facilities.
电子和电气行业的需求将受到影响。例如，汽车工业的白银需求会受到影响。白银在钎焊中的使用也会受到影响。白银在5g基础设施和即将到来的智能电子以及光伏等领域的应用是亮点。由于许多制造商暂时关闭了生产设施，预计今年的珠宝需求将出现下降。
Investment sentiment will remain cautious this year. Holdings in silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) are forecast to remain stable in 2020. Profit-taking in ETPs is likely to be limited, even with a price rally. These holdings tend to be relatively sticky, which reflects the importance of retail investors in this market, who often adopt a longer investment horizon than many short-term professional investors. Silver physical investment, which consists of purchases of silver bullion coins and bars, is forecast to increase in the second half of this year. Demand at present is especially high, particularly for silver bullion coins. But with many global mints shuttered, the supply chain cannot keep up with this demand. We expect this to improve in H2 2020.
今年的投资情绪仍将保持谨慎。在2020年，白银交易所交易产品(ETPs)的持有量预计将保持稳定。即使价格上涨，etp的获利回吐可能有限。这些持股往往具有相对的粘性，这反映了散户投资者在这个市场的重要性，他们往往比许多短期专业投资者的投资期限更长。白银实物投资（包括购买银块、金币和金条）预计将在今年下半年增加。目前的需求特别高，特别是对银币的需求。但随着全球许多造币厂倒闭，供应链无法满足这种需求。我们预计在2020年下半年情况会有所改善。
Silver mine production is forecast to decrease by 3 percent in 2020. This decline will be due to mining disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. We initially were forecasting a small increase in mine production, due to the contribution from several recently commissioned mining operations and also from the ramp-up of several mine expansions to full production. That has changed however due to the pandemic.
2020年，中国的银矿产量预计将下降3%。这种下降将是由于新型冠状病毒大流行造成的采矿中断。我们最初预测矿山产量会有小幅增长，这是由于最近几次委托采矿作业的贡献，以及几次矿山扩大到充分生产。然而，由于流感大流行，使情况发生了变化。
The outlook for the silver price remains somewhat positive, but in H2 2020. The 1st quarter of this year saw wide swings in the price, and the gold/silver ratio hitting all-time highs. As the year progresses, silver should improve price wise due to a positive spill-over from gains in gold, as the yellow metal should benefit from macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties across critical economies. Some analysts forecast that silver could perform better than gold, primarily because silver is viewed as being undervalued at present.
在2020年下半年，银价的前景仍然乐观。今年第一季度，金价大幅波动，金银比例创下历史新高。随着时间的推移，由于金价上涨带来的积极影响，银价应该会出现上涨，因为在关键经济体中，宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性应该会让黄金受益。一些分析师预测，白银的表现可能优于黄金，主要是因为目前银价被视为被低估。
（中国白银网）
